The Changing Tides: Biden's Gaffe vs. Powell's Endorsement

In recent days, we've been hearing a lot about how the 2008 Presidential Race has tightened.  It was less than 10 day ago when most polls showed Obama with a double digit lead, and now we see polls across the board at a statistical tie, or at least a much closer race.  So what is it that has altered the climate of the race the most in these past weeks?

Interestingly enough, Colin Powell's endorsement hasn't even come close to generating the amount of change that most people expected.  Yes, he was a very powerful Republican who worked under GWBush and now supports Obama, but with him came virtually none of the weak Republican base.  It's tough to say why this hasn't had the expected effect (it definitely has had ample media coverage).  What is it about Colin Powell that the Republicans aren't rallying behind anymore?  The most expressed opinions seems to be that people don't legitimize what he says ever since his Iraq policy.  Interesting to note, the Democrats who victimized Powell for being wrong about Iraq are now the Democrats rallying behind him as one of their "most respectable endorsements" yet.

It's possible that the Powell effect just hasn't registered in the polls yet, we'll be able to know more definitively by the end of this week when the final rounds of polls come out.

But McCain has closed the gap.  The AP shock poll showed a 44-43 race (Obama leading) just this week.  What has caused such an insurgence?  Conservatives will tell you a slew of different things:  Joe the Plumber, Socialist fears, Obama's new re-worked economic plan, or Joe Biden.

Personally, I like to think of Joe Biden as the reason this race has closed up.  Why?  He finally planted the gaffe we've all been waiting for.  "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama".  What was he saying?  What did he mean?  Two completely different answers.

Obviously, what Biden meant to say was that Obama has the ability to handle any crisis that the world can throw at America (and with an economic crisis in the works, crises of similar nature are bound to pop up).  In no way did he mean for this message to come across as a crutch to Obama's foreign policy efforts.  Too bad for Joe, thats exactly how it came across.  We don't want to see our Presidents faced with a crisis.  Even if they end up successful, any crisis is a bad crisis for America.  The McCain campaign has pushed behind this statement, promising that McCain's administration would be able to deal with any potential crisis before it became a "Cuban Missile-Style" Crisis.

Did this kill Obama?  No way.  What the VP Candidate says hardly ever has a major damaging effect on the public opinion of the Presidential candidate, but it did work to rally the weak or moderate Republicans.  Everything that the Republicans had hoped for is coming true:  their base is finally starting to rally around John McCain, and the closing of the polls (especially in battleground states) is nothing but a good sign for the Republicans.

Bank on a Bradley effect?  You Betcha! (More on the Bradley Effect later?  Probably)